Analysts Are Forecasting a 4.7 Percent Social Security COLA in 2027. The Inflation Behind That Number Is Already Taking From Your Check.

The forecast for next year’s Social Security raise keeps climbing. That is not good news for what your check can buy right now.

What You Should Know

Independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst Mary Johnson, cited by CNBC, has forecast the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security could reach as high as 4.7 percent, based on current inflation trends, according to Newsweek’s July 2026 coverage of Social Security payment updates. The 2026 COLA was 2.8 percent, translating to roughly $56 more per month for the average retiree. A 4.7 percent raise in 2027 would add close to $98 per month for that same average benefit.

The mechanism behind the forecast is the same one eating seniors’ purchasing power today. COLA calculations are based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, which tracks the rate of inflation. The CPI rose 4.2 percent over the 12 months ending May 2026, the largest year-over-year increase since April 2023, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. A higher COLA forecast reflects higher inflation - which means every dollar seniors have is buying less than it did when this year’s raise arrived in January.

The Money Trail

A 2027 COLA larger than 2026’s reflects an economy where prices are rising faster than benefits are adjusting. Energy costs rose 23.5 percent over the past year, healthcare was up 3.8 percent, and shelter costs increased 4.1 percent, all outpacing the 2.8 percent raise seniors received in January. The COLA formula is also calculated on spending patterns of urban wage earners, not retirees, who allocate more of their income to healthcare and housing - two of the most inflated categories.

Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana said in an interview with CNBC this week that he plans to prioritize Social Security reform legislation in his final months in office, according to Newsweek. Cassidy has proposed investing roughly $1.5 trillion over five years into a dedicated fund, allowing that investment to grow over decades to help close the program’s long-term funding gap without immediate tax increases or benefit cuts.

The Receipts

Newsweek’s July 2026 coverage of Social Security payment dates for July confirmed the COLA forecast from analyst Mary Johnson and cited Senator Cassidy’s CNBC interview. The Bureau of Labor Statistics published the May 2026 CPI data on June 10, 2026, confirming the 4.2 percent year-over-year headline inflation figure. The Social Security Administration’s COLA fact sheet confirmed the 2026 adjustment of 2.8 percent.

What Happens Next

The official 2027 COLA calculation will be determined by the CPI-W readings in July, August, and September 2026. The BLS releases the June 2026 CPI report on July 14. If inflation remains elevated through the third quarter, the 4.7 percent forecast holds; if it cools, the adjustment will be lower. The next payment date for most Social Security beneficiaries born between July 1 and July 10 is Wednesday, July 8.

References: Newsweek, When Are July 2026 Social Security Payments Coming | Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index Summary May 2026 | Social Security Administration, 2026 COLA Fact Sheet