Social Security Checks Could Rise $73 a Month in 2027, Not Final Yet

The average Social Security benefit could rise by about $73 a month in 2027, according to a new AARP forecast that projects a 3.5% cost-of-living adjustment. The official COLA will not be announced until October 14, so the figure is still only an estimate.

What the 3.5 Percent Projection Would Add

AARP’s forecast, updated this week, would lift the average retired worker’s monthly benefit from about $2,086 to roughly $2,159, an increase of around $73. Over a full year, that comes to about $876 more. The estimate applies to the average benefit; each person’s actual increase depends on their current payment.

Why the Number Can Still Change

The 3.5 percent figure is a projection, not the raise itself. Social Security sets the COLA from third-quarter inflation data, so the final number depends on how prices move in July, August and September. If inflation comes in softer than expected, the increase could be smaller; if it runs hotter, it could be larger.

How the COLA Is Set

By law, the adjustment is based on the change in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W, from the third quarter of one year to the third quarter of the next. The Social Security Administration finalizes the figure once September inflation data is in.

What Retirees Should Watch

For planning, three points matter: the projection is 3.5 percent, the official COLA is expected on October 14, and any increase takes effect with January 2027 payments. Until the announcement, $73 a month is the working estimate, not a guarantee.

References: AARP