Social Security's 2027 COLA Is Estimated at 3.6% Ahead of the October Decision

AARP currently estimates that Social Security benefits could receive a 3.6% cost-of-living adjustment for 2027, but the official increase has not been set. The estimate would add roughly $75 a month to the average retired worker’s benefit if it holds, making the final inflation reading in October the number beneficiaries are still waiting for.

The 3.6% Figure Is a Forecast, Not the Final COLA

AARP updated its estimate in September based on inflation data available so far. Social Security’s cost-of-living adjustment is calculated from third-quarter changes in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, so the final percentage cannot be known until the remaining data are available.

That distinction matters for household budgeting. A 3.6% projection gives beneficiaries a working estimate, but it should not be treated as a confirmed increase.

The Final Number Arrives in October

The Social Security Administration says the next COLA will be announced in October 2026. Once the government has the complete third-quarter inflation data, the 2027 percentage can be calculated and applied to benefits beginning next year.

AARP’s current estimate suggests a larger increase than the 2.8% adjustment for 2026, but even a small change in the final inflation reading can move the official number.

The Dollar Impact Depends on the Current Benefit

A percentage increase does not add the same number of dollars to every check. Someone receiving a larger monthly benefit would see a larger dollar increase than someone receiving a smaller benefit.

For now, the useful number is 3.6% as an estimate and October as the decision point. The official percentage - not the projection - will determine what beneficiaries actually receive in 2027.

References: Social Security COLA 2027: An Early Look at How Much Payments Could Increase | Cost-Of-Living Adjustment (COLA)