Texas Senate Race Is a Toss-Up as Early Voting Nears

Caption: James Talarico (left) and Ken Paxton (right). Credits: Antonioaesparza (left), Gage Skidmore (right) / CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons. Cropped and combined.

Texas’ Senate race is a toss-up in a new CBS News/YouGov poll released just before early voting begins October 19. Democrat James Talarico has 51% to Republican Ken Paxton’s 49% among likely voters, a difference within the survey’s margin of error.

Talarico, a state representative, is running against the state’s attorney general for the seat held by John Cornyn, whom Paxton defeated in the Republican primary, The Texas Tribune reported.

A Talarico victory would be the first Democratic statewide win in Texas since 1994, The Texas Tribune reported. Libertarian Ted Brown is also on the November ballot. The CBS question tests the two major-party candidates rather than listing every candidate voters will see on their ballots.

What is driving support

Among likely voters supporting Talarico, 48% said the main reason was liking him. Thirty percent said opposing Paxton, and 22% cited Talarico’s Democratic affiliation.

Paxton’s supporters gave a different ordering of reasons. Forty-one percent chiefly cited his being the Republican nominee, 36% named opposition to Talarico, and 23% said liking Paxton was their main reason.

The cost of living was the leading issue in the Senate choice: 56% selected it as most important among the four concerns offered. Immigration and the border followed at 23%, with healthcare at 12% and taxes at 9%.

The survey interviewed 1,492 registered voters in Texas October 8-16. The likely-voter results, including respondents leaning toward a candidate, have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points; the full registered-voter sample has a 3.4-point margin.

Voting dates to know

In-person early voting runs October 19-30, and Election Day is November 3. The state says registered, qualified voters can vote early without meeting special qualifications.

The ballot-by-mail application deadline is October 23; applications must be received by then, according to the secretary of state’s calendar. County election officials provide polling locations and operating hours for voters planning to cast ballots in person.

References: CBS News poll shows a Texas toss-up with Talarico, Paxton in tight Senate race | CBS News Poll - October 8-16, 2026 | Important Election Dates | Early Voting In Person in Texas | On the issues: A Q&A with U.S. Senate candidates James Talarico, Ken Paxton and Ted Brown